Residence Costs Doubtless Saved Climbing at a Fast Tempo in November

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While the cost of a home is projected to have accelerated at a slower annual pace in November, prices likely advanced at swifter rates month over month.

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A popular gauge of residential real estate prices is expected to show the cost of a home accelerated at a double-digit rate in November—though experts say the rapid appreciation will likely slow this year.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for November are expected to be released Tuesday at 9 am Eastern. The 20-City Composite Index, which measures price fluctuations in 20 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, is projected to have risen 18.2% annually in November, according to estimates gathered by FactSet. That reading would be slightly below the prior month’s 18.4% annual home-price growth, but still significantly higher than average.

Month over month, the index is forecast to have increased 1.3% in November, faster than the prior month’s 0.9%.

Swift home-price gains, driven by increased competition for a low supply of homes, continued through December, more recent data shows. The National Association of Realtors said last week that the median sale price of an existing home in December was $358,000, 15.8% higher than the year prior. The inventory of unsold homes at the end of the month was the lowest since the trade group began tracking the data in 1999, the association said.

The pace of home-price gains is largely expected to decelerate in 2022 as mortgage rates increase. As of last week, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had increased 0.45 percentage points since the final reading in 2021, according to Freddie Mac data.

Freddie Mac’s latest quarterly forecast, released last week, foresees home prices in 2022 slowing to 6.2% annual growth, down from an anticipated 15.9% in 2021. Mortgage rates are expected to average 3.6% this year, according to the forecast.

The National Association of Realtors forecasts a deceleration in rising home prices. Their forecast, released in December, called for a 5.7% increase in home prices this year.

Write to Shaina Mishkin at [email protected]